Headwinds on climate action could be the voluntary carbon market’s biggest opportunity yet

Reflections from Marion Verles, CEO of SustainCERT, on the latest developments in the Voluntary Carbon Market following the North America Carbon World (NACW), March 2025.

Climate action is facing serious macro-economic and political headwinds. In both the US and Europe, government support is wavering. The EU just recently agreed to multi-year delays in the implementation of its CSRD and CSDDD directives via the Omnibus package, while public funding and political momentum for ambitious climate policies remain limited. This backslide comes at a critical time: according to the UNFCCC, current global climate plans will cut emissions by just 2.6% by 2030, falling short of the 40% needed to keep the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C goal within reach.

The stakes are high. Every dollar invested and every fraction of a degree avoided matters. And yet, in this moment of adversity, there’s opportunity.

Albert Einstein once said, ‘In the midst of every crisis lies great opportunity’. I believe the recent headwinds – as disheartening as they are – could become a defining moment for the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM).

Markets offer flexibility and cost-effectiveness. As government action slows, more voices are calling for their role and development than ever before. This shift coincides with the most serious and coordinated efforts I’ve seen in two decades to restore trust and integrity in the VCM. And these efforts are working. After years of scrutiny and skepticism, the tide is turning. The market is showing early signs of renewal—green shoots are emerging, and detractors are quieting.

This is our chance to scale the Voluntary Carbon Market —credibly, effectively, and with integrity. But how?

We need a three-step approach:

1. Design for high integrity, aligning with the ICVCM and the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism.
2. Harness digital solutions to increase accuracy, speed and reduce costs.
3. Create more flexibility to support climate leaders in taking responsibility for their residual emissions.

Navigating the complexity of the VCM and its many stakeholders is no small task, and success was never guaranteed. That’s why it has been refreshing to see how far the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) has come since its founding in 2021, with the launch of programs and methodologies approved for the Core Carbon Principles (CCP) labels demarcating high-quality carbon credits.

At NACW, ICVCM’s CEO Amy Merrill shared that CCP labels—now applied to about 27% of the market—are beginning to command a quality premium. That’s a meaningful signal. Just as importantly, the ICVCM is expanding its efforts, from Digital Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (DMRV) to increased oversight of Validation and Verification Bodies (VVBs). At SustainCERT we welcome this scrutiny. Trust is our license to operate —and we’re proud to lead by example.

We are now seeing convergence between ICVCM’s efforts and the operationalization of  the Article 6.4 rulebook under the Paris Agreement. Agreed at COP29, these rules raise the bar for additionality, safeguarding principles, and contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The alignment of the ICVCM and the new Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism has the potential to unify definitions of quality and catalyze demand as regulatory and voluntary standards begin to intersect. As Amy Merrill emphasized, the ICVCM is supporting governments in leveraging ICVCM infrastructure—an effort that could be truly transformational.

DMRV is gaining traction —and rightly so. Digital solutions can increase the accuracy and efficiency of carbon credit issuance. When SustainCERT began working on DMRV in 2021, we were largely alone. Today, that’s no longer the case. Leading standards like Verra and Gold Standard, alongside project developers and VVBs, are now actively engaged.

Still, there’s a disconnect. Despite a growing number of DMRV initiatives, adoption remains slow due to fragmentation and lack of coordination. At NACW we shared our work with the World Bank Carbon Market Infrastructure Working Group to help address this challenge through a multi-stakeholder dialogue to accelerate adoption of digital solutions.

Our preliminary findings show that large-scale DMRV adoption will require a level playing field — with standardized digital data collection, quantification requirements, and third-party digital verification. But technology alone isn’t enough to ensure transparency. Without the right governance and standards, we risk “garbage in, garbage out”. Thankfully, accreditation bodies like ANAB are starting to engage in these vital discussions. I am optimistic that robust digital safeguards are within reach.

Another prominent theme at NACW was Scope 3—and how carbon markets can support value chain decarbonization. It’s encouraging to see this once-niche topic move center stage.

At SustainCERT, we sit at the intersection of carbon markets and value chain verification.  Our joint session with Verra explored ways to harmonize the Scope 3 landscape and provide companies with consistent guidance on Scope 3 accounting. We were fortunate to hear from leaders such as Arlene Cotie (VP Global Carbon Assets and Quality at Bayer Crop Science), Julie Marcus (Associate Director, Carbon Markets at 3Degrees), and Lynn Riley (Lead Scientist at American Forest Foundation), all of whom shared their perspectives on the importance of credible, scalable approaches to Scope 3 action.

Julie highlighted the VCM’s potential to provide the verification backbone for Scope 3 interventions, while Lynn noted how monetization of outcomes—whether via voluntary or regulated markets—can be transformative, especially for smallholders. Arlene, meanwhile, welcomed collaboration that avoids duplication and builds on what works.

Throughout the event, a common sentiment emerged: as governments retreat, the private sector must be empowered to move forward. Companies want flexibility as to what instruments to use to meet their targets — whether with carbon credits, direct mitigation, Impact Units, or other mechanisms. And the standards are starting to reflect this.

Work underway by the GHG Protocol on Actions and Market Instruments and the SBTi Corporate Net Zero Standard update point toward a more flexible, pragmatic future —one that supports ambition while demanding rigor. I support this approach, provided it comes with robust safeguards to ensure the credibility of climate action.

We need to create flexibility for companies to do the right thing, while ensuring this comes with increased transparency, accountability and independent verification. We've been advocating for this balance through our work with the Value Change Initiative since 2018. What matters most is that every ton of CO2e claimed is real, measured with robust methodologies, and verified by a credible third party. 

After a turbulent few years, the Voluntary Carbon Market is entering a new era. While the broader political climate is challenging, it is also creating space for market mechanisms to rise. Work is underway to set a high bar for quality. Digital solutions are ready to scale, awaiting the green light from standards. And the link between corporate climate action and the VCM is stronger than ever.

The pieces are coming together. Now is the time for the Voluntary Carbon Market to lead.